Artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons in armed conflicts: Implications for compliance with international humanitarian law

Vladas Tumalavičius

Autores

Vladas Tumalavičius Universidade Turība

Palavras-chave:

derecho internacional humanitario, sistemas autónomos, ciberataques, guerra tecnológica, violaciones del DIH, riesgos humanitários

Resumo

El estudio tiene como objetivo analizar la dinámica del uso de sistemas autónomos, tecnologías de inteligencia artificial y ciberataques en conflictos armados entre 2015 y 2024. El documento también identifica su impacto en el cumplimiento del derecho internacional humanitario. Se aplicó un análisis normativo de las disposiciones de los Convenios de Ginebra, documentos de la ONU, el CICR y el Grupo de Expertos Gubernamentales (GGE). La parte empírica se basó en datos de SIPRI, UCDP y ACLED. El énfasis principal se puso en el análisis de indicadores durante 2021-2024. Estos datos sirvieron de base para realizar análisis de correlación y regresión. Los resultados revelaron la relación entre el nivel de participación tecnológica y el número de violaciones del DIH (r = 0,80 para ciberataques; r = 0,65 para sistemas autónomos). Los mayores riesgos humanitarios se registran en guerras con altas tasas de letalidad y fragmentación (Ucrania, Siria, Sudán e Israel). Por lo tanto, la evolución tecnológica de la guerra ha generado importantes lagunas jurídicas en la regulación de los medios autónomos y cibernéticos. Es necesario actualizar las normas vigentes del DIH, en particular estableciendo el principio del «control humano significativo»

Downloads

Os dados de download ainda não estão disponíveis.

Referências

ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project). ACLED Conflict Index Dashboard: Global Overview, December 2024. Washington, D.C.: ACLED, 2024. Available at: https://acleddata.com/platform/conflict-index-dashboard (accessed on 15 November 2025).

ADDITIONAL PROTOCOL I to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949. Protocol I relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts. Geneva: ICRC, 1977. Available at: https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977 (accessed on 15 November 2025).

AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL. Annual report 2022/23: The state of the world’s human rights. London: Amnesty International, 2023. Available at: https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/pol10/5670/2023/en/ (accessed on 15 November 2025).

ANDERSON, K.; WAXMAN, M. C. Law and Ethics for Autonomous Weapon Systems: Why a Ban Won't Work and How the Laws of War Can. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2250126

BATTISTUZZI, L.; RECCHIUTO, C. T.; SGORBISSA, A. Ethical concerns in rescue robotics: a scoping review. Ethics and Information Technology, 2021, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 863–875. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-021-09603-0

BIERSTEKER, Erwin; et al. Humanitarian support in a denial of access context: emergent strategies at the interface of humanitarian and sovereign law. Journal of International Humanitarian Action, 2021, vol. 6, no. 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41018-021-00103-w

BILLER, J.; GOINES, T. Protecting Civilian Data in Armed Conflicts. Ethical Dilemmas in the Global Defense Industry. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023, pp. 189–216. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190675813.003.0008

BONDAR, I. et al. State regulation of the development of educational and scientific process in higher education institutions. Journal of management Information and Decision Sciences, vol. 24, no. 2, p. 1-10, 2021. Available at: https://www.abacademies.org/articles/state-regulation-of-the-development-of-educational-and-scientific-process-in-higher-education-institutions-10158.html (accessed on 15 November 2025).

BONDARENKO, Svitlana et al. Planning, Accounting and Control as Risk Management Tools for Small Business Investment Projects. Emerging Science Journal, vol. 5, no. 5, p. 650-666, 1 Oct. 2021. https://doi.org/10.28991/esj-2021-01302

CHIAPPINI KOSCINA, Valeria. Prosecuting Killer Robots: Allocating Criminal Responsibilities for Grave Breaches of International Humanitarian Law Committed by Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems. Law and Artificial Intelligence. The Hague: T.M.C. Asser Press, 2022, p. 149–167. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-523-2_8

CONVENTION (IV) RELATIVE TO THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIAN PERSONS IN TIME OF WAR. Geneva, 12 August 1949. International Humanitarian Law Databases. Geneva: International Committee of the Red Cross. Retrieved 25 February 2025. Available at: https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gciv-1949 (accessed on 15 November 2025).

CONVENTION ON INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION. Montreal: International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO, Doc. 3700), 2000. Retrieved 11 March 2026. Available at: https://www.icao.int/sites/default/files/2024-12/7300_8ed.pdf (accessed on 15 November 2025).

DERVIŞ, Leyla. Transformation of Geopolitical Perceptions in the Russian-Ukrainian War: Impact on Regional Relations in the Future. Futurity of Social Science, 2023, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 21-34. Available at: https://doi.org/10.57125/FS.2023.03.20.02

DUMANSKA IY, et al. Personal data protection policy impact on the company development. WSEAS transactions on environment and development, 2022, vol. 18, p. 232-246. https://doi.org/10.37394/232015.2022.18.25

ENGELHARDT, W.; KESSLER, V. The ethical debate about the use of autonomous weapon systems from a theological perspective. Verbum et Ecclesia, 2024, vol. 45, no. 1. https://doi.org/10.4102/ve.v45i1.3176

GARCIA, D. Lethal Artificial Intelligence and Change: The Future of International Peace and Security. International Studies Review, 2018, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 334–341. https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viy029

GELLERS, J. C.; GUNKEL, D. J. Artificial Intelligence and International Human Rights Law: Implications for Humans and Technology in the 21st Century and Beyond. In: Handbook on the Politics and Governance of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023, pp. 430–455. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781800887374.00027

GRYSHCHENKO, I. M.; DENYSOVA, A. V.; OVSIANNIKOVA, O. O.; BUHA, H. S.; KISELYOVA, E. I. Means for control over the activities of public authorities by civic democratic institutions: the conceptual framework analysis. Cuestiones Políticas, 2021, vol. 39, no. 69, pp. 796-813. https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.3969.49

HALYTSKA-DIDUKH, T.; SALATA, S.; NASHYVOCHNIKOV, O.; DERVIŞ, L.; SOLOVEI, H. Emergence of Modern Historical Policy in the Russian-Ukrainian War Context: Assessing Transformations in Global Order Paradigms and Present Challenges. Amazonia Investiga, 2023, vol. 12, no. 68, pp. 141-150. Available at: https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/9385609.pd (accessed on 15 November 2025).

HELLMAN, J. The Impact of Autonomous Weapons Systems on Armed Conflicts: Are International Humanitarian Law Norms Offering an Adequate Response? Contributions to International Relations. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024, pp. 155–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66750-3_10

INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE OF THE RED CROSS (ICRC). Autonomous weapon systems: Implications of increasing autonomy in the critical functions of weapons. Geneva: CRC, 2023. Available at: https://www.icrc.org/en/publication/4283-autonomous-weapons-systems (accessed on 15 November 2025).

INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE OF THE RED CROSS (ICRC). International Humanitarian Law and the Challenges of Contemporary Armed Conflicts: Report to the 34th International Conference. Geneva: ICRC, 2019. Available at: https://international-review.icrc.org/articles/reports-and-documents-ihl-and-the-challenges-of-contemporary-armed-conflicts-927 (accessed on 15 November 2025).

JOHNSON, J. Artificial intelligence & future warfare: implications for international security. Defense & Security Analysis, 2019, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 147–169. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2019.1600800

KOCHUPILLAI, M.; KAHL, M.; SCHMITT, M.; TAUBENBOECK, H.; ZHU, X. X. Earth Observation and Artificial Intelligence: Understanding emerging ethical issues and opportunities. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine, 2022, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 90–124. https://doi.org/10.1109/mgrs.2022.3208357

KOZLOVSKYI, S.; KULINICH, T.; MAZUR, H.; KHADZHYNOV, I.; KOZLOVSKYI, V. Forecasting the competitiveness of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in the conditions of war and European integration. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 2023, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 774–783.

KOZLOVSKYI, S.; MAZUR, H. Ensuring the stability of the modern economic system – the basis of the economic development of the state. Investytsii: praktyka ta dosvid – Investments: Practice and Experience, 2017, no. 1, pp. 5–12. Available at: http://www.investplan.com.ua/?op=1&z=5316&i=0 (accessed on 15 November 2025).

KRAP, A.; BATAIEV, S.; BOBRO, N.; KOZUB, V.; HLEVATSKA, N. Examination of digital advancements: Their influence on contemporary corporate management methods and approaches. Multidisciplinary Reviews, 2024, vol. 7, article 2024spe026. https://doi.org/10.31893/multirev.2024spe026

MACCARO, A.; STOKES, K.; STATHAM, L.; HE, L.; WILLIAMS, A.; PECCHIA, L.; PIAGGIO, D. Clearing the Fog: A Scoping Literature Review on the Ethical Issues Surrounding Artificial Intelligence-Based Medical Devices. Journal of Personalized Medicine, 2024, vol. 14, no. 5, article 443. https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm14050443

ONIANI, D.; HILSMAN, J.; PENG, Y.; et al. Adopting and expanding ethical principles for generative artificial intelligence from military to healthcare. NPJ Digital Medicine, 2023, vol. 6, art. 225. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00965-x

PASHA, A. M. Criminal Procedure and Forensic Aspects of Mutual Legal Assistance between States in Criminal Matters: Experience of Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Cuestiones Políticas, 2022, vol. 40, no. 72, pp. 591-607. https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4072.35

PASHA, A. M.; ABDURAKHMAN OGLU, A. B.; KHALILOV, F. Y.; ZAKIR KIZI, H. I. The use of electronic evidence in court: a comparative legal analysis in the world practice. Cuestiones Políticas, 2022, vol. 40, no. 72, pp. 385-394. https://doi.org/10.46398/cuestpol.4072.21

PERIŠIĆ, P.; TOMLJENOVIĆ, M. Legal Permissibility of Autonomous Weapon Systems, with Specific Reference to the Principles of International Humanitarian Law. Zbornik radova Pravnog fakulteta u Splitu, 2024, vol. 61, no. 4, pp. 531–555. https://doi.org/10.31141/zrpfs.2024.61.154.531

SHERESHEVSKY, Yahli. International humanitarian law-making and new military technologies. International Review of the Red Cross. 2022, 104(920-921), 2131–2152. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1816383122000443

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI). Armaments, disarmament and international security. Stockholm: SIPRI, 2023. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2023 (accessed on 15 November 2025).

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI). SIPRI Yearbook 2024: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. Stockholm: SIPRI, 2024. Available at: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2024 (accessed on 15 November 2025).

SYSOIEV, D.; PIDBEREZNYKH, I.; MAZUR, H.; TELLIS, S.; VANDIN, Y. Administrative law mechanisms for preventing and countering corruption in the field of territorial defence. Sapienza, 2024, vol. 5, no. 4, e24069. https://doi.org/10.51798/sijis.v5i4.859

TILT, D. International Perspectives on Regulatory Frameworks: AI Through the Lens of Patent Law. In:Artificial Intelligence and Normative Challenges. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023, pp. 171–190. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-41081-9_10

TLYCHYK, O.; DRAGAN, O.; NAZYMKO, O. Establishing the Ratio of Concepts of Counteraction to Legalization (Laundering) of Illegally-Obtained Income and Counteraction to the Shadow Economy. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 2018, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 341-346. Available at: http://www.baltijapublishing.lv/index.php/issue/article/view/518/pdf (accessed on 15 November 2025).

TRACH, Yuliia et al. Problems of Cultural Heritage Preservation in the Context of the Armed Conflict Growth. International Conference on Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. p. 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48939-7_4

TSILONIS, V. Lethal Autonomous Weapons, Drones and Robots: To What Extent Their Usage Infringes Upon Established Principles of International Criminal Law? In: The Jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2024, pp. 299–314. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-46138-5_11

UGWU, O. P.-C.; ALUM, E. U.; UGWU, J. N.; EZE, V. H. U.; UGWU, C. N.; OGENYI, F. C.; OKON, M. B. Harnessing technology for infectious disease response in conflict zones: Challenges, innovations, and policy implications. Medicine, 2024, vol. 103, no. 28, article e38834. https://doi.org/10.1097/md.0000000000038834

UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY. Charter of the United Nations and Statute of the International Court of Justice. New York: UN, 1945. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter (accessed on 15 November 2025).

UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR DISARMAMENT AFFAIRS (UNODA). Responsible Innovation in Artificial Intelligence for Peace and Security. Available at: https://disarmament.unoda.org/en/responsible-innovation-ai/about (accessed on 15 November 2025)

UNITED NATIONS. Report of the Group of Governmental Experts on Emerging Technologies in the Area of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS). Available at: https://docs.un.org/en/CCW/GGE.1/2021/3 (accessed on 15 November 2025)

UPPSALA CONFLICT DATA PROGRAM (UCDP). UCDP Dataset 2024: Armed Conflicts, 1989–2024. Uppsala: Uppsala University, 2024. Available at: https://ucdp.uu.se (accessed on 15 November 2025).

VULETIĆ, Igor. Rethinking command responsibility in the context of emerging AI weapons. EU and comparative law issues and challenges series (ECLIC), 2023, vol. 7, pp. 163-80. https://doi.org/10.25234/eclic/28262

WANG, N.; CHRISTEN, M.; HUNT, M.; BILLER-ANDORNO, N. Supporting value sensitivity in the humanitarian use of drones through an ethics assessment framework. International Review of the Red Cross, 2022, vol. 104, no. 919, pp. 1397–1428. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1816383121000989

XIAOLING, P. Discussion on ethical dilemma caused by artificial intelligence and countermeasures. In: 2021 IEEE Asia-Pacific Conference on Image Processing, Electronics and Computers (IPEC). IEEE, 2021, pp. 453–457. https://doi.org/10.1109/IPEC51340.2021.9421271

YUCEL, A.; JAN, J.; ASLAM, M. Z.; AZIZ, M. A. Drones, Bots, and the Law: Charting the Terrain of Autonomous Weapon Systems in International Conflict. Society, Law and Policy Review, 2023, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 26–36. https://doi.org/10.62585/slpr.v2i1.27

YURYK, Olha et al. Assessment of the Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technologies on the Development of Ukrainian Medicine in War Conditions. International Journal of Chemical and Biochemical Sciences, 2023, vol. 24, no. 5, p. 206-211.