Institutional capacity and the implementation gap: A comparative analysis of anti-money laundering effectiveness in the criminological dimension of economic crimes
Palavras-chave:
Money Laundering, Fatf Standards, Implementation Gap, Crime Displacement, Regulatory EffectivenessResumo
This study offers a criminological and comparative analysis of how the state's institutional capacity impacts the effectiveness of anti-corruption mechanisms and to identify ways used by criminal actors to adapt to regulatory pressures. The research is based on a comparative analysis of four jurisdictions: Ukraine, Lithuania, Germany, Singapore. In terms of methodology, the study applies multiple linear regression, clustering and flow modeling to evaluate the law enforcement systems’ capacity. Empirical findings show a strong correlation (r = 0.89) between the strengthening of traditional banking supervision and the shift of illicit capital into crypto-assets. It was established that the share of stablecoins in illegal operations reached 84%. As for Ukraine, it demonstrates the highest level of institutional gap (E = 3.6), being associated with wartime risks and procedural inertia. Furthermore, the calculations indicate the loss of up to 82% analytical capacity at the transition stage from financial intelligence to judicial outcomes. Notably, the Singapore model serves as a benchmark (E = 8.5), largely due to its implementation of advanced monitoring technologies. The regression analysis shows a statistically significant relationship (β = -0.45) between the supervision quality and the volumes of confiscated assets. On the whole, the findings support the need to move beyond the formal reporting models toward risk-based approaches with a strong technological component. The modernization of financial monitoring should include the automation of data exchange in order to tackle up to 68% of delays in registries.
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